EXCLUSIVE: The Tiki Taka Handbook book cover
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Tag Archives: Euro 2012
EURO 2012 FINAL PREVIEW “Spain are a well oiled machine” and “Italy are warm blooded”
Italy 1-1 Croatia Tactical Report & Why Croatia were 39.8% ‘Luckier’? [PDO v2]
Both the Azzurri and Croatia came into this game unchanged and in full confidence after their recent performances against Spain and the Republic of Ireland. Italy’s first half performance was comfortable – with the midfield trio of Pirlo, Marchisio and Thiago Motta running the show and the front line of Balotelli – Cassano were provided with constant ammunition.
It was Andrea Pirlo who broke the deadlock with a trademark placed free kick from 25 yards out. Incredibly, Pirlo became the first player to score directly from a free kick in the EURO’s since Czech Republic’s Marek Heinz scored against Germany in EURO 2004.
Slaven Bilic, who has agreed to manage Lokomotiv Moscow after the tournament, told Aleksander Holiga of The Guardian that he firmly believed his Croatia side have what it takes to win the tournament:
“Croatia can win it. When we take off, it’s an explosion”
And in the second half Croatia showed just why they are arguably one of the most complete sides tactically in the tournament. Both Strinic and Perisic (the left flank) had been pinned back by forward thinking wing back Christian Maggio in the first half which by and large contributed to Croatia’s lack of goal threat in the first half. This can be visually noticed by analysing the tackling zones, where Croatia were forced into their left back spot – making far more tackles in this zone compared to the second half.
Croatia heavily rely on their wing backs pushing on forward and aiding the wide midfielders to put crosses into the box: Srnic averaged 14 crosses per game in qualification (5 more than any other player during qualification) and ensemble, Croatia often put in over 30 crosses per game. However, Croatia only managed one successful cross in the first half (from a right sided corner) and only four in total from the left hand side. The half time interval brought about a change in emphasis from the right flank as an attacking outlet to the left.
While Strinic was an unused attacking outlet against the Republic of Ireland (only 2 attempted crosses out of the team’s 30), the half time team walk by Bilic clearly included a strategy to both prevent Maggio’s threat and to cross more from the left flank (Perisic and Strinic): Strinic attempted 10 crosses (37% of all Croatia’s crosses) against Italy. It was a stroke of genius from Bilic as it was Strinic’s cross from deep that produced the Mandzukic goal and leaving the Croatian fans bouncing behind the italian’s goal for the remainder of the game.
‘Croatia’. Why can’t the Azzurri beat Croatia? All four competitive matches against the croats since 1996 have ended in either defeat or a draw for the italians. Italy have now failed to win in six successive World and European Cup finals games, their longest non-winning streak at major tournaments.
Italy have now left themselves in a position of a must win game against Trappatoni’s Republic of Ireland – who themselves have been particularly poor against Spain and Croatia so far. However, in order to progress into the quarter finals not only do results need to go Italy’s way elsewhere, the Republic of Ireland are now in the dangerous position of playing without pressure and with an incredibly supportive 12th man behind them despite their failure to win a single game so far:
“How many times over the years have Ireland had big results against the odds? Think of USA 1994 when they beat Italy at Giants Stadium. I wouldn’t rule out something special happening this evening, because Ireland are capable of doing that.” (Kevin Kilbane, BBC Radio 5)
Why Croatia were 39.8% ‘luckier’ than Italy – PDO*
*using goal scoring opportunities only
As used briefly in my first match report for the Azzurri – PDO is aimed to “separate the two entities that determine who wins a football match: luck and skill” (@11tegen11) and is widely used in both basketball and ice hockey.
However, the first attempt at using PDO as an analysis tool in football for the Azzurri-Spain clash brought up a number of criticisms for its use in football. The PDO typically uses either shots on target or shots off target in its formula to attain the outcome:
[Shooting Percentage (sh%) + Saving Percentage (sv%)] x 10 = PDO (always a combined value of 2000)
While PDO works in Ice Hockey and Basketball and has revolutionised their analysis – there are considerable differences in these sports to football. Every shot taken is often a true opportunity as shooting is considered a linear outcome process. In football though, the amount of shots is complex and is not directly related to whether a team should win or not.
Using shots off target has its advantage as it tells more of a story, it reveals more about how much of attacking force one side were in comparison to another. However, more often than not a shot off target in one from a half chance and would not therefore determine how lucky a team were not to score.
There are also problems with using shots on target in this formula – football tactics are diverse, both attacking and defensive – just because one team has had more shots does not necessarily inform us of whether the quality of shots were ever going to truly have an opportunity of being a goal. Therefore instead of using either of these statistics in this adapted version of PDO, ‘real goal scoring opportunities’ are used in its replacement. By using goal scoring opportunities as the measure, you include all the true qualities of the chances of scoring and therefore winning (providing you score more than the opponent).
Luck in this case is defined in football terms as: a team who has less real goal scoring opportunities yet scores more goals. A ‘real goal scoring opportunity’ is a decision made at root decision – a chance that had the possibility of going in – therefore shots from tight angles that are straight at goal keepers are ignored, shots from distance that do not trouble the keeper or hit the corner flag per se are too ignored.
Goal scoring opportunities may include shots off target, shots on target or in a small number of circumstances no shot at all (Balotelli v Spain) – which was an OBVIOUS goal scoring opportunity, yet no shot was attempted. The key word here is OBVIOUS – the same terminology used in the rule book for sending a player off.
Italy PDO* 6 gso, 1 goal. 3 gso, 2 saves.
PDO* ITA = 10 (16.7 + 66.7) = 834*
Croatia PDO* 3 gso, 1 goal. 6 gso, 5 saves.
PDO*CRO = 10 (33.3 + 83.3) = 1166*
— Note all Goal Scoring Opportunities have been listed at the end of this article. —
Therefore from this analysis it can be derived that the Croatians were 39.8% ‘luckier’ (more efficient) than the Italians in winning their game. Croatia had 16.6% more luck than the norm (of 1000 PDO). Italy had 19.9% less luck than the norm.
Limitations to this analysis still lie within the tactical approaches of football. As noted throughout the match report, Croatia relied heavily on crossing the ball rather than feeding the ball through to their strikers. This will result in less opportunities actually being created as crossing rates are typically at best around 30% (see premier league winger statistics). However, this approach is a dangerous one and is consistent on a game basis for the main source of goals – see number of goals scored from headers at EURO 2012 – Jelavic and Mandzukic are also big targets and Croatia have by and large got their tactics spot on.
PDO*
the counted ‘real goal scoring opportunities’:
1 Italy – Balotelli, 2nd minute
2 Italy – Balotelli, 10th minute
3 Italy – Balotelli, 15th minute
4 Italy – Marchisio, 36th minute
5 Italy – Pirlo, 39th minute and GOAL
6 Italy – Montolivo, 76th minute
1 Croatia – Jelavic, 19th minute
2 Croatia – Modric, 46th minute
3 Croatia – Mario Mandzukic, 72nd minute and GOAL
For more information regarding PDO please visit the two links provided below:
@11tegen11 http://11tegen11.net/?p=1731
@jameswgrayson http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com
Italy 1 Spain 1 | Tactics & statistically proving the answer to: were Italy lucky?
Note: see Italy’s EURO 2012 preview for context
The kings of two footballing philosophies locked horns in the opening Group C game of Euro 2012: Catenaccio and Tiki-Taka; Italy and Spain.
The Catenaccio philosophy is one associated with a highly organised and effective defensive tactic that focuses on taming the opponent’s attacks and in turn preventing any credible goal scoring opportunities. In Catenaccio, it is typical that the role of a sweeper, libero or verrouilleur is given a pivotal role in both defensive organisation and playing the ball out from the back – a commanding general.
In truth, the profession of a libero or verrouilleur is a dying role in modern-day football tactics – the likes of Franz Beckenbauer, Gaetano Scirea and Franco Baresi are now widely regarded as football antiquity. So eye brows should have been raised when Cesare Prandelli opted to move away from his preferred 4-3-1-2 to an italian suited 3-5-2, made using two wing backs and a libero(Danielle De Rossi), while instructing Juventus attacking midfielder Giaccherini to play out of position on his international début at left wing-back (a player who only four years a go was fighting relegation in Serie C2). Much of the prematch attention should have been directed towards Prandelli’s courage to employ such a tactic against the world champions.
Italy (3-5-2): Buffon, Maggio, Chiellini, Bonucci, Motta, Marchisio, Giaccherini, De Rossi, Pirlo, Balotelli, Cassano
Yet Vincente del Bosque had other ideas. La Furia Roja looked set to take the rule book of formations and simply tear it up, by announcing a team that seemingly was set up to play a 4-6-0 formation:
“When we got into the locker room we were joking around looking at the team sheet, as we couldn’t find a striker” reveals the Azzurri’s newly appointed Libero, Danielle De Rossi.
Guillem Balague (spanish football expert) argued that del Bosque had simply taken inspiration from an already widely praised and accepted Barcelona tactic:
“How many strikers do you think Barcelona use? No strikers means that there’s not one referent point, but five different mobile reference points…set formations are an obsolete way to look at football …centre backs prefer a number 9 due to familiarity of being able to mark them”
Balague went on to claim that del Bosque had set the team up like so, as a tactical response to both Italy’s likelihood of employing a Catenaccio strategy:
“Spain will find a team that will kill spaces. You combat that with dynamism, 2v1’s, short passing and involvement, hence no striker – [this is the] logical progression of style”
Spain looked to be playing to their own strengths, as a response to both their opponent’s set up, their own abilities and as a response to a lack of David Villa. With much of the attack built around a successful Barcelona team and the influence of the Barca-influenced infamous ‘rondo’ it seemed as if it was only a natural progression of formation in a bid to force what they do best: keep ball. The Rondo is essentially a fiercely competitive game of ‘piggy in the middle’ that has become tradition at Barca’s training ground and is often used to intimidate any new arrivals at the club.
However, it seems that there was actually less preparation for this tactic than one would expect, as Javi Matallanas revealed to Guillem Balague that Cesc Fabregas was only made aware of his role as a ‘false number 9’ three hours before kick off.
With a throw-back libero, a false number 9, a Balotelli-Cassano strike partnership, the battle of the regista’s (Xavi and Pirlo) and the clash of the two polar footballing philosophies this match up was beginning to look more and more like it was going to be one of the classics of Euro history.
Spain (4-6-0?): Casillas, Arbeloa, Piqué, Ramos, Alba; Busquets, Xabi Alonso, Xavi; Silva, Iniesta, Fàbregas
The 90 minutes
As expected the spanish dominated possession (65.8%) and played 646 passes to Italy’s 292 passes. Xavi, whom Gary Breen said would “keep the ball off you in a phone box”, was involved in 197 of Spain’s passes (played or received) and created 8 goal scoring opportunities for the striker-less tiki-taka side. Busquets was another player central to La Roja’s possession play as he was involved in 183 passes and boasted a 92% pass rate (the highest of anyone on the field).
Spain’s unnamed formation allowed the spanish to play 172 passes in the final third compared to Italy’s 48, a theme than ran throughout the game.
However, Italy pressed high, boasted a 100% tackling rate (15/15) and provided Spain with a problem as they didn’t begin the game with many players who could run in behind Italy’s back line. The libero role was played well by De Rossi who relieved Pirlo of the play-making pressure, with De Rossi deciding the direction of play more often than not.
It was noted that while Pirlo played the majority of his passes to the centralised players, De Rossi focused much of his passes down the flanks, into wider positions – this seemed to be an obvious tactical employment.
Half time came with the score at 0-0, but as one of the most technical and interesting duels of the competition so far.
The second half started, promising more of the same, only this time the first real opportunity came early in the half. A frustrated Mario Balotelli, pressing high up the field managed to steal the ball from Sergio Ramos and began the charge towards Casillas on his goal line. All of Spain and Italy held their breath as Balotelli’s charge towards the goal began to turn into a casual stroll towards Casillas as if a Playstation controller was running out of battery. As Balotelli began to see the world around him in slow motion Ramos had caught up with him to put in a last-ditch tackle. What just happened?!
Prandelli, clearly not happy with Balotelli’s performance and perhaps concerned about the booking Mario had received earlier on in the first half, decided to bring on Di Natale in his place, leaving Balotelli to think over how on earth he hadn’t had a shot moments before.
Up stepped Andrea Pirlo to stake his claim as one of the world’s best – skipping past his Spanish marker on the half way line and changing the pace of the game to feed through Di Natale, who put away his first shot of the game and made his mark immediately.
But the action packed opening to the second half was not finished just yet. Three minutes later Spain managed to get in behind De Rossi with a clever run from Cesc Fabregas who finished cooly – to complete the curse commentator Jon Champion had put on the game where he opened the game with the words “there is no striker, there’s only Fabregas” much like Tim Lovejoy’s cursed words of “Don’t worry, it’s only Ray Parlour”, moments before the midfielder hit an unstoppable shot from 30 yards in the 2002 FA Cup final win against Chelsea.
Di Natale had one more undeniable opportunity with an agonisingly missed volley inside the box from a clever Giovinco ball before the game returned to it’s status quo of Spanish control in the final third, in a duel that looked destined for a testing draw there after – aside from the two missed Torres one on one opportunities to put the game to rest, a ‘nearly-impact’ after his introduction to the spanish front line. The final score Italy 1 Spain 1.
Azzurri Key Performances
Claudio Marchisio, Antonio Cassano, Danielle De Rossi and Gianluigi Buffon all put forward their claim for Azzurri of the match. Iniesta continued to ‘wow’ plaudits for the Spanish, as others put in a nothing more than expected performance from the world champions.
Uefa named Marchisio (9.15) as their man of the match for both teams via their statistical method ahead of followers Fabregas, Iniesta, Xavi, Alonso and Busquets. The Juventus midfielder created balance in a robust midfield trio of Pirlo, himself and Thiago Motta. Marchisio showcased all aspects of his game and was unlucky not to score after unlocking the spanish control in the second half: dribbling through the open space from the half way line towards the spanish box to play a one-two, receive the ball back within the box only to hit a tame shot at Casillas. The Turin-born midfielder also recovered possession well throughout and made a key block to a goal bound Xavi effort.
Pirlo showed glimpses of mesmerising brilliance, including his assist, however was not consistent throughout the game with his passing – hopefully not a sign of tiredness after a long season with Juventus. While Danielle De Rossi had an excellent first half, the introduction of Torres showed a weakness in the player as a defender as Spain found Torres in a good position on more than one occasion:
“I did better in the first half and suffered more against Fernando Torres, who is physically strong and intelligent”
Azzurri Post Match Quotes
Danielle De Rossi: “It was natural to lose a little confidence after the Russia performance and some expected a catastrophe but that wasn’t the case”
Cesare Prandelli: “The important thing is that they did what I asked, playing well when passing vertically and gave our all. This is Italy.”
James Horncastle on Cesare Prandelli: “Nothing but admiration for Prandelli. Humble enough to put own system aside in recognition of what works here and now”
Post match the President of Italy, Napolitano went into in the locker room to congratulate many of the players on an optimistic outcome and embraced Buffon after his performance (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGi0hiAyGy4).
The draw concluded a 14 match winning streak for the Spanish in competitive matches and leaves an air of optimism amongst the italians again after a recent pessimistic outlook on the Azzurri’s chances of winning Euro 2012. Both Italy and Spain showed glimpses of why they should be considered favourites for the tournament, upstaging any of the performances from early favourites in Group B.
While most of the Azzurri came out of the duel playing well, Mario Balotelli put in a below par performance in a promising Balo-Cassa striker force. The only positive to take from the game is that hopefully Balotelli will use that miss as fire for the rest of the tournament presuming Cesare Prandelli provides him with another opportunity in the next game, one that hopefully this time, he’ll take.
Were they lucky? Introduction: Analysis of PDO
Using PDO to analyse how lucky a team may have been in the outcome of a game is a concept @11tegen11 and @jameswgrayson have employed in a bid to “separate the two entities that determine who wins a football match: luck and skill” (@11tegen11). The PDO concept was first used as analysis for Ice Hockey and has revolutionised the way in which teams are assessed.
The PDO is simply a number that determines how lucky each team has been. The PDO is set as a norm at 1000 and always combines with the opponents in a total of 2000 – is calculated as:
[Shooting Percentage (sh%) + Saving Percentage (sv%)] x 10 = PDO
Where sh% is calculated as ‘total number of goals’/’total number of shots’ x 100, and;
sv% is calculated as ‘total number of shots that missed’/‘total number of shots’ x 100
A PDO of 1001 would suggest that the team have been luckier than the norm of 1000 and a PDO of 999 would suggest a team have been unlucky compared to the norm. The combined value must always add up to 2000, since there are two teams each playing each with 1000 norm worth of luck-skill.
For example, take the Denmark v Netherlands game in Group B
Denmark: 1 goal, 8 shots. 32 ‘saves’ from 32 shots.
Netherlands: 0 goals, 32 shots, 7 ‘saves’ from 8.
Denmark PDO = 10 (12.5 + 100) = 1125
Netherlands PDO = 10 (0 + 87.5) = 875
Leaving Denmark with a PDO of 1125 and the Netherlands with a PDO of 875. Meaning that the Netherlands were 12.5% ‘unluckier’ (less efficient) than the norm, Denmark were 12.5% ‘luckier’ than the norm and a differential of 28.6% more luck to the Danes. Literally taken, Denmark won their game with a degree of luck and Netherlands lost by being unlucky.
Were they lucky? Conclusion: Italy and Spain PDO
Italy: 1 goal, 11 shots. 18 ‘saves’ from 19 shots
Spain: 1 goal, 19 shots. 10 ‘saves’ from 11 shots
Italy PDO = 10 (9+94.7) = 1038
Spain PDO = 10 (5.3+90.9) = 962
A minor differential of 76, or 38 more/less lucky for each side. Italy were 7.9% ‘luckier’ (more efficient) than the Spanish.
So to conclude were Italy lucky to draw against Spain? – In short, Yes… but only marginally, in relation to the Denmark and Netherlands game.
If Mario Balotelli had actually managed to get his shot away this would have evened this statistic up further still, providing Casillas had made the resultant save. This would have bought the totals to 972 and 1028 in the same balance of luck and a 5.7% luck differential.
SEE LINKS AND COMMENTS BELOW (click speech bubble top right) for a more comprehensive understanding behind the rationale and analysis of PDO on the Dutch Eredivisie and English Premier League using the same analysis method with additional outcomes such as futuristic prediction:
@11tegen11 http://11tegen11.net/?p=1731
@jameswgrayson http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com
TikiTaka Football www.thepathismadebywalking.wordpress.com
All statistics taken from FourFourTwo Euro 2012 Stats Zone
Les Bleus – France’s Euro 2012 Preview
Ben Wilson [ Twitter: @BenWilson000] examines Laurent Blanc and France’s chances of winning Euro 2012 – a team who boast a real quality team ethos – a far cry from the recent World Cup.
Two years go in South Africa, France crashed out of the World Cup bottom of the group, without winning a single game. Raymond Domenech’s team were divided, big egos collided, and a mutiny erupted – the result being a disastrous campaign. Most of the blame was laid out at Domenech’s feet. Their qualifying campaign wasn’t smooth either, with Eric Cantona calling him the “worst coach in French football since Louis XVI”. The only French monarch to be guillotined – not the most endearing observation. Euro 2012 is chance for the French to forget 2010!
On 26th June 2010, two weeks after their World Cup exit Laurent Blanc took the reins of “Les Bleus” and they haven’t looked back since. France are now unbeaten in 21 matches, the longest unbeaten run out of all team participating at the Euros in Poland and Ukraine. The woes of the last major tournament seem to be banished, forgotten. The squad is now more harmonious, and it shows. The recent 4-0 victory over Estonia produced a free flowing attacking performance, one played with enjoyment and smiles on the faces of the players. Blanc has installed a team spirit within the French camp that was so evidently missing two years ago in South Africa. Blaise Matuidi, the Paris Saint-Germain midfielder said “We’re not invincible, but the coach has helped us and we’ve got a lot of confidence…We have talented players who can play together. What makes us strong is our team spirit. If we keep that, we can achieve great things together in the future.”
Qualification
Les Bleus topped their group in qualifying with 6 wins, 3 Draws and 1 loss. Scoring 15 goals and only conceding 4, the third lowest in qualifying; only Italy and Russia conceded less. Although not the rampant campaign that some may have predicted considering their group, the job was still completed to good effect. At international level being unbeaten for 21 games is no easy feat and February’s victory over Euro hopefuls Germany proved that this French squad has real quality. They seem to be slight underdogs coming into this tournament, the memories of 2010 still fresh in football’s mind, but Im sure that suits Blanc and Les Tricolores just fine. Expectation is low and even Blanc stated that “Our objective is to win one match.” This isn’t the old French pomp and arrogance that we have come to expect. This time, the tone is underplayed, one of diligence and meticulous preparation. However, the Euro 2000 winners might just be able to go all the way 2012.
The Squad
Goalkeepers: Hugo Lloris (Olympique Lyon) – Born: 26.12.86 Caps: 32
Steve Mandanda (Olympique Marseille) – Born: 28.03.85 Caps: 15
Cedric Carrasso (Girondins Bordeaux) – Born: 30.12.81 Caps: 1
Defenders: Gael Clichy (Manchester City) – Born: 26.07.85 Caps: 12 Goals: 0
Patrice Evra (Manchester United) – Born: 15.03.81 Caps: 40. Goals: 0
Laurent Koscielny (Arsenal) – Born: 10.09.85 Caps: 2 Goals: 0
Philippe Mexes (AC Milan) – Born: 30.03.82 Caps: 25 Goals: 1
Adil Rami (Valencia) – Born: 27.12.85 Caps: 19 Goals: 1
Mathieu Debuchy (Lille) – Born: 28.07.85 Caps: 4. Goals: 1
Anthony Reveillere (Olympique Lyon) – Born: 10.11.79 Caps: 17 Goals: 1
Midfielders: Yohan Cabaye (Newcastle United) – Born: 14.01.86 Caps: 12 Goals: 0
Florent Malouda (Chelsea) – Born: 13.06.80 Caps: 76 Goals: 9
Samir Nasri (Manchester City) – Born: 26.06.87 Caps: 30 Goals: 3
Alou Diarra (Olympique Marseille) – 15.07.81 Caps: 40 Goals: 0
Yann M’Vila (Stade Rennes) – Born: 26.06.90 Caps: 19 Goals: 1
Marvin Martin (Sochaux) – Born: 10.01.88 Caps: 11 Goals: 2
Blaise Matuidi (Paris St Germain) – Born: 09.04.87 Caps: 4 Goals: 0
Forwards: Hatem Ben Arfa (Newcastle United) – Born 07.03.87 Caps: 10 Goals: 2
Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) – Born: 19.12.87 Caps: 44 Goals: 13
Franck Ribery (Bayern Munich) – Born: 07.04.83 Caps: 59 Goals: 9
Olivier Giroud (Montpellier) – Born: 30.09.86 Caps: 5 Goals: 1
Jeremy Menez (Paris St Germain) – Born: 07.05.87 Caps: 12 Goals: 0
Mathieu Valbuena (Olympique Marseille) – Born: 28.09.84 Caps: 11 Goals: 2
Individually players have been in top form. Franck Ribery, who is so often criticised for not living up to his hype at international level, has had a fantastic season. Ribery has scored 17 goals this season for Bayern Munich and produced 17 assists. He also completed the most dribbles out of players in the top 5 leagues playing at Euro 2012 with 129; 56 more than Cristiano Ronaldo. Ribery could have a great tournament if he can transfer his club form to Poland and Ukraine, and is definitely a player I will be keeping an eye on, not least because I have him in my fantasy football team! And the signs are good; he’s scored 3 goals in 3 games in the recent warm up games, after not scoring at international level for over 2 years.
Samir Nasri will play a big role, floating higher up the pitch, the link between midfield and attack. His club form was good if slightly indifferent at times, but he’ll definitely be buoyed by winning the Premier League on the last day of the season. That winning mentality will be useful, as well as his eye for a pass he has a 91.1% pass accuracy, the 5th best at the tournament.
Karim Benzema also brings that winning mentality after scooping the La Liga prize. He’s had an excellent season too, scoring 32 goals for Real Madrid, producing 12 assists. Benzema will lead the French line, and finally this one time wonderkid may be able to fulfill his potential. He may have moved too soon to Madrid from Lyon, but he’s at long last found his feet and is certain to be one to watch in Poland and Ukraine, who knows he could be top goal scorer? However, waiting to take his chance if Benzema doesn’t produce is Oliver Giroud. A fantastic player, a real striker. Good in the air, he won the second most aerial duels (132) in the top 5 leagues, just behind Andy Carrol (152). Giroud was also the joint top scorer in Ligue 1 with 21 goals and he propelled Montpellier to the league title. He scored in the recent victory over Germany which will give great confidence to this young striker.
Jeremy Menez completes their attacking starting four. One of the biggest talents in French football, a mazy inside forward with electric pace, who has had a great season after moving from AS Roma to PSG. Unlucky to miss out on the championship, Menez finished with the most assists after Chelsea bound Eden hazard, with 13 and scoring 7 goals.
Yohan Cabaye will be the midfield general, deep-lying playmaker, one of my favourite players to watch this season in the Premier League. Some people were surprised by his move to Newcastle last year, with many thought that he was destined to cut his teeth in the Champions League, be at Lille after winning the title or at another club with Champions League football. However, Yohan moved to the North East of England, and what a success it has been. Cabaye ran the show up in the toon! Helping Newcastle on their way to a 5th placed finish and narrowly missing out on a Champions League place. Cabaye goes to the Euros with the most successful tackles in the top 5 leagues with 117. Yohan Cabaye or “Le Dreamboat” as they call him in Newcastle capped off a wonderful end to the season playing a key role in Newcastle’s six wins in a row scoring twice and assisting 4 times in 6 games. Expect Cabaye to play a major part in any success France may have at the Euros, an exquisite passer off the ball with the eye for a shot. He has started in all 3 warm up games so expect him to start against England on Monday night. Cabaye’s midfield partner should be Yan M’Vila, but injured recently in the 2-0 victory against Serbia he is a big doubt for the first game. M’Vila, if unfit, will leave a huge gap in a strong French midfield, one Alou Diarra must fill.
Yann M’Vila, although young, possesses great maturity and authority on the pitch. This season M’Vila won back possession 202 times in 36 games and yet only picked up 2 yellow cards, giving away 0.8 fouls a game, he’s disciplined as well. His role will be to guard the back four, an enforcer and let Cabaye push on slightly and Nasri roam. This role is of great importance to teams in this footballing era, and France is no different. The attacking flair of France need to play with confidence, a confidence that can stem from the trust Ribery, Nasri, Benzema, and Menez place in players such as Cabaye, M’Vila, Diarra.
Looking at the defence, Les Bleus conceded only 4 goals in the whole qualifying campaign, a sterling effort, and have conceded 2 goals in the three warm up games. The starting right back Mathieu Debuchy is probably one of Europe’s best up and coming right backs. Debuchy possess’s great technique, and likes to push forward and give support, merging defence with attack, he scored recently in one of the warm up games. The centre back pairing of Adil Rami and Phillip Mexes have played 3 times together out of the 4 games played in 2012 so hopefully an understanding is maturing between them. They only have three centre backs in the squad, with Laurent Koscielny as backup who is more than capable. There is a worry though with only 3 centre backs in case of injury! The left back spot is a potential weakness for France; Patrice Evra hasn’t had a great season and was shown up for a lack of pace and bad decision making on a few occasions for Manchester United. Many believe club rival Gael Clichy should be ahead of him, who would be able to cap of a great season if he was to play a major role in any French success after winning the title with Manchester City. If opposing teams can get at Evra down that right hand side, expect questions to be asked. England may see that as a point of attack and use the pace of Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain to expose the French defence.
With the gloves France have a top goalkeeper in Hugo Lloris, one of the best in Europe, young but commanding! He’ll ensure confidence in the rest of the team I am sure. In back-up they have Steve Mandanda and Cedric Carasso. Mandanda lost his place to Lloris just before the 2010 World Cup, but he is a great shot stopper. Carasso will be there for practice, third choice keepers rarely make an appearance in tournaments.
Les Bleus have a host of talented players waiting to grab their chance of the bench. Hatem Ben Arfa, seems to have grown up and matured this season, his move to Newcastle has allowed him to repair his reputation and he really showcased his talent in the second half of the season. His inclusion in the squad is a great personal achievement for a man who suffered a horrendous double leg break not so long ago. Ben Arfa is a hero on Tyneside, but the Euros will give him a chance to show the French public that he’s a reformed character and not the “Enfant Terrible” he was once labeled. Any team with a player of his ability is a team better off, could make a big impact of the bench and even steal a starting berth.
Mathieu Valbuena is another player that could make an impact. This season for Marseille he made the second most key passes (105) out of any player in the top five leagues playing at the Euros, more than Silva (104), Ozil (103) and Mata (102). The quick attacking midfielder come winger has the ability to thread the ball through and create chances that players like Benzema, Ribery and Giroud will gladly put away. Valbuena is a favourite of Blanc, so expect his involvement to be a formality. The most experienced player in the squad is Florent Malouda, its very close who starts between him and Menez, but Im going for Menez. Malouda will be very useful off the bench, and great to have around with his experience. Marvin Martin and Blaise Matuidi are both young and very talented players. Martin burst on to the international scene scoring two late goals on his debut, and has an unbelievable range of passing. Hasn’t had the best of seasons for Sochaux and he’s rumored to be joining Lille after the tournament. Matuidi has played well at PSG this season and managed to hold down starting spot despite great competition there. But he may have not been picked if it wasn’t for the notable absences of Abou Diaby and Lassana Diarra.
Probable XI: 4 – 2 – 3 – 1
Prediction
They have a great squad full of players who are bang in form. They have gelled well together, the warm up games suggest that. The likes of Spain, Germany and Netherlands are favourites yes, but France are quietly going about their business, maybe even under the radar. They’ll win their group with ease and put in some fine performances Im sure, expect them to get to the Semi-Finals and by that time it’s anyone’s game:
ALLEZ LES BLEUS!!!!!
Fixtures
Monday 11th June France v England; Ukraine v Sweden
Friday 15th June Ukraine v France; Sweden v England
Tuesday 19th June England v Ukraine; France v Sweden
Statistics courtesy of Who Scored www.whoscored.com
Author: Ben Wilson @BenWilson000
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